The Four Sublimes of Megaprojects

"Why are megaprojects so attractive to decision makers? The answer may be found in the so called “four sublimes” of megaproject management."

Megaproject: Syndey Opera House

 1. "The first of these, the “technological sublime,” is a term variously attributed to  Miller (1965) and Marx (1967) to describe the positive historical reception of technology in American culture during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Frick (2008) introduced the term to the study of megaprojects and here described the technological  sublime as the rapture engineers and technologists get from building large and innovative projects, with their rich opportunities for pushing the boundaries for what technology can do, such as building the tallest building, the longest bridge, the fastest aircraft, the largest wind turbine, or the first of anything."

2. "Flyvbjerg (2012; 2014) proposed three additional sublimes, beginning with the “political sublime,” which here is understood to be the rapture politicians get from building monuments to themselves and for their causes. Megaprojects are manifest, garner attention, and lend an air of pro-activeness to their promoters; moreover, they are media magnets, which appeals to politicians who seem to enjoy few things better than the visibility they get from starting megaprojects, except, perhaps, the ceremonious ribbon-cutting during the opening of one in the company of royals or presidents, who are likely to be present, lured by the unique monumentality and historical import of many megaprojects. This is the type of public exposure that helps get politicians reelected; so, therefore, they actively seek it out."

3. "Next, there is the “economic sublime,” which is the delight business people and trade unions get from making lots of money and jobs from megaprojects. Given the enormous budgets for megaprojects, there are ample funds to go around for all, including contractors, engineers, architects, consultants, construction and transportation workers, bankers, investors, landowners, lawyers, and developers."

4. "Finally, the “aesthetic sublime” is the pleasure designers and people who appreciate good design get from building, using, and looking at something very large that is also iconically beautiful (e.g., San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge or Sydney’s Opera House)."

Flyvbjerg's Four Sublimes

That is from Bent Flyvbjerg's "What You Should Know About Megaprojects."

Flyvbjerg recommends breaking up megaprojects into smaller projects where possible, and running the cost estimate through a "de-biaser" where not. He also finds that private megaprojects do not necessarily experience less cost growth. I think this is all a good qualitative analysis of why we get into megaprojects, but what is missing is a reasonable explanation of why honest or independent cost estimates veer on the low side (the Hiding Hand theory is not one). I think the primary reason is that current contracting schemes are poorly structured for megaprojects, allowing for a constant redirection of plans and resources. If this were the case, additional historical data won't always produce better estimates.